Economic Impacts from On-Farm Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Event in Tennessee
Menard, R. J., J. M. Thompson, B. C. English, D. W. Hughes, K. L. Jensen, A. P. Griffith, and S. A. Smith.  2019.  Review of Regional Studies.  (in press)

In March of 2017, two outbreaks, one highly pathogenic and one low pathogenic, of avian influenza were reported in Tennessee poultry breeding flocks. Once detected, affected farms were depopulated and a 6.2-mile (10.0 kilometers) control area was implemented to stem the spread of the virus as per disease spread guidelines. In 2016, Tennessee’s poultry industry was ranked 17th in the nation in cash receipts for broilers, 23rd for chicken eggs, 10th for farm chickens, and 20th for poultry and eggs. Given the importance of the industry to the state, metrics reflecting the magnitude of the economic impact to the economy from an avian influenza event within poultry producing regions of the state are helpful to industry organizations, policymakers, and other industry stakeholders. As such, this analysis provides estimates of the potential economic impacts from an outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza under the hypothetical scenarios modeling depopulation rates of 10, 15, and 25 percent of broiler breeders and broilers in a nine-county area of poultry production located in the south-central part of Tennessee where the industry is concentrated. To estimate the potential economic impacts of a highly pathogenic avian influenza event, information about production and expenditures by representative poultry operations (e.g. broiler breeder and broiler) were used, along with IMPLAN (Impact Analysis for Planning), an economic input-output model. Based on the three hypothetical scenarios compared across whether or not the processing sector was included in the control area, the estimated total economic impacts to the regional economy was $8.43 per bird, or $41.1 million, $61.6 million, and $102.7 million for the 10, 15, and 25 percent scenarios, respectively excluding the processing, or value added, industries. Gross regional product, as measured by value added within the region, was decreased by $11.1 million, $17.0 million, and $27.8 million, respectively, or an estimated $2.28 per bird.